Italian
If geopolitics were a game of chess, Vladimir Putin would be the player who sets the rules, while Europeans struggle to move pieces that don’t matter. Keir Starmer, with his “coalition of the willing,” seems convinced that he can influence the game, but the truth is that the only real interlocutor for Moscow is the United States. Why? Because the Ukrainian issue has never been a dispute between Russia and Europe, but between Russia and Washington.
UCRAINAL. While Starmer and Macron are busy building a “diplomatic fortress,” Putin knows very well that the real deal will be with the American administration. Moscow is not interested in compromises with London or Paris: the central issue of the war is the American presence on the Russian borders. That is why Russia has always rejected direct negotiations with secondary actors, and now, finally, is talking to those who really matter: the United States.
The difference between the Biden presidency and the Trump presidency is evident. While Biden has avoided any serious attempt to reach an agreement with Russia, fueling an endless escalation, Trump moves differently. The recent exchange of statements between him and Putin demonstrates that the Kremlin sees in the current American administration an interlocutor with whom to negotiate, unlike the previous administration, which only worked to exacerbate the conflict. Of course, the risk of dangerous concessions to Moscow exists, but at least the negotiation is open.
And in this scenario, what about Europe? Starmer can convene all the meetings he wants, but without Washington at the table, nothing concrete can happen. Macron can talk tough, but without a U.S. mandate, he won’t be the one deciding Ukraine’s fate. Even the presumed Franco-British axis risks remaining an illusion, as cracks among allies widen.
The point is clear: Putin does not deal with those who cannot give him what he wants. And what he wants is a neutral Ukraine, without NATO bases on its borders. If the United States decides to accept this reality, the war could move towards a conclusion. If instead they continue to play the proxy war game, the Ukrainian tragedy will only prolong. Europe may delude itself into thinking it is a protagonist, but the truth is that Kiev’s fate will be decided elsewhere, between Washington and Moscow.
