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Truce hanging in the balance in Ukraine: between hopes for peace and strategic calculations

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The United States and Ukraine are negotiating a ceasefire with Russia, but positions remain far apart. Moscow speaks of difficult negotiations, while Washington hopes for tangible progress.

UKRAINE. Washington’s negotiator Steve Witkoff is confident that Vladimir Putin truly wants peace. It’s a pity that the on-the-ground chronicle tells a very different story: drones flying, disputed villages, and relentless bombings.

Hope for a ceasefire is a balm for diplomats and a nightmare for realists. Talks in Saudi Arabia aim to build a ceasefire, at least for energy infrastructure and the Black Sea. But American enthusiasm clashes with the Kremlin’s icy caution: “Difficult negotiations await us,” warns Dmitry Peskov, emphasizing that we are only at the beginning. A phrase that in Russian jargon means: “We will proceed as long as it suits us.”

The picture becomes even more surreal when Witkoff, without any hesitation, repeats some of the classic narratives of the Kremlin: the farcical referendums of 2022 would be a manifestation of popular will, the occupied regions would now be “de facto” Russian, and, above all, Putin would have no interest in annexing the rest of Ukraine. He says it as if it were a fact, ignoring the numerous times the Russian president has denied the very existence of an independent Ukrainian identity.

Without even realizing it, Witkoff becomes a mouthpiece for a thought that resonates from Moscow to certain Western circles: war can be resolved by accepting the partition of Ukraine. The problem? This solution, besides violating international law, ignores the basic principle of diplomacy: peace is not made by granting the fruits of aggression to the victor.

Meanwhile, the front remains active. Moscow continues to strike Ukrainian cities with hundreds of drones, while Kyiv responds with targeted attacks. And as negotiations are being discussed, in Rostov a Russian civilian is killed in a Ukrainian attack. Neither side seems truly convinced to stop.

Witkoff insists that the Russians “have already gotten what they want.” But history teaches us that authoritarian regimes never settle. The issue is not whether Putin wants all of Ukraine, but whether the West is willing to sacrifice the principle of sovereignty for a temporary deal. And on this, the Russian response is already written between the lines: “we are just getting started.”

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