Italian
The meeting between Donald Trump and Keir Starmer at the White House marks a turning point in global geopolitical dynamics, with the former US president insisting that Vladimir Putin will keep his word on a hypothetical peace agreement for Ukraine.
WASHINGTON. Trump’s trust in the Kremlin leader is surprising, especially considering recent historical experience, in which Russia has repeatedly violated treaties and international commitments. But is it possible that Trump sees something that other Western leaders are missing, or is it a dangerous illusion?
Trump’s plan
According to Trump, the secret to ensuring Ukrainian security does not lie so much in American military presence, but rather in massive economic investment. His proposal involves the participation of US companies in the extraction of rare minerals in Ukraine, believing that the presence of American workers could serve as a sufficient deterrent to stop further Russian aggressions.
But this strategy is based on a fragile assumption: that Putin respects US economic interests more than he fears Western military reactions. An optimistic hypothesis that clashes with the reality of the facts. Recent history has shown that Western economic interests have never deterred the Kremlin from pursuing its geopolitical objectives, as demonstrated by the invasion of Crimea in 2014 and the large-scale attack in 2022.
Starmer and the European approach
On the other hand, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has tried to maintain a diplomatic balance, while reiterating the need for security guarantees for Kiev. He emphasized the commitment of the United Kingdom and other European countries to put “boots on the ground and planes in the air” to ensure the sustainability of a potential peace agreement. This approach clashes with Trump’s reluctance to engage militarily and highlights the growing gap between Washington and its European allies.
Trump and Putin: a controversial relationship
Trump’s statement that Putin will keep his word raises more than one question. His claim “I’ve known him for a long time, I think he will honor the agreement” closely resembles the famous “I looked into Putin’s eyes and saw his soul” by George W. Bush in 2001. A miscalculation that cost the United States and its allies dearly.
However, Trump, as a skilled communicator, knows that his words are aimed more at the domestic electorate than the international community. Presenting himself as the leader who can “make peace” with Putin is a strategic move ahead of the elections. The issue is that this narrative risks undermining Western credibility and offering Moscow further room for maneuver.
A dangerous illusion?
If history has taught us anything, it is that trusting the word of Vladimir Putin is a gamble. Trump, in his economic pragmatism, may believe that money is the key to ensuring peace. But Putin’s Russia has repeatedly shown itself willing to bear enormous economic costs in order to achieve its geopolitical goals.
The open question is whether Europe and the rest of the world are willing to bet on the “Trump factor” for the security of the continent. If the answer is negative, then the United Kingdom and the European Union will have to prepare for a future in which the defense of Ukraine could depend more on them than on the White House.
