Italian
On Tuesday, the decision of the Paris judges regarding the ban from public office. At stake is not only the future of the leader of the National Rally but also the framework of the 2027 presidential race
PARIS – The day of truth is approaching for Marine Le Pen. On Tuesday, the Paris Court of Appeal will rule on the appeal filed by the leader of the Rassemblement National against the sentence that imposed a five-year ban from public office. A decision that is set to have profound consequences not only for her personal future but for the entire French political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential elections.
At 57, three-time candidate for the Élysée and a symbol of the French nationalist right, Le Pen remains one of the most credible protagonists in the upcoming presidential challenge. The outcome of the judicial proceedings will determine whether she can still lead the party in the race to succeed Emmanuel Macron or if the baton will definitively pass to her young protégé, Jordan Bardella, the party president and an emerging face of the new generation of the movement.
Despite the uncertainty, Le Pen has publicly shown confidence. “If I can run, I will,” she stated in recent days, reiterating that she is ready to face any scenario. However, behind the official statements, there is a growing awareness within the party that a confirmation of the ban would represent a severe political and symbolic blow.
The case stems from the ruling issued in March of last year, when the Paris court found Le Pen guilty of embezzlement of European Parliament funds. According to the prosecution, the Rassemblement National allegedly used resources intended for European parliamentary assistants to finance activities and personnel employed in France between 2004 and 2016.
Together with other former MEPs, collaborators, and party officials, Le Pen was sentenced to a four-year prison term, two of which were suspended, in addition to a penalty that prevents her from holding elected office for five years. A ruling that sparked a heated political debate in France and drew reactions at the European level.
The leader of the RN has always rejected the accusations, denouncing a politically motivated procedure and claiming that the party acted in compliance with the rules. During the appeal process, she admitted possible administrative errors in the management of some collaborators but denied the existence of an organized system to divert European funds.
The prosecutors argued that Le Pen would have consolidated and structured practices already used in previous years by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen, the historical founder of the Front National. For this reason, they requested the confirmation of the five-year ban and a tightening of the prison sentence.
The possible scenarios are various. The most favorable hypothesis for the far-right leader would be acquittal, although this is considered unlikely by most observers. More realistically, the Court could confirm the guilt while reducing the duration of the disqualification or eliminating it altogether.
A possible ban limited to two years or less would indeed allow Le Pen to become eligible again before the first round of the presidential elections, scheduled for April 18, 2027. However, the question of the actual possibility of conducting an effective electoral campaign would remain open if she were to face restrictive measures or forms of judicial oversight.
The ruling will be closely watched within the Rassemblement National as well. Polls continue to indicate the party as one of the main political forces in the country, and both Le Pen and Bardella are credited with an easy path to the second round.
However, Bardella’s potential candidacy presents significant uncertainties. While enjoying strong popularity among younger voters and considerable media exposure, the thirty-year-old leader is considered less experienced than his mentor. In recent months, he has also been the subject of controversy regarding his private life and some disagreements that have emerged within the party, especially on economic policies, where he advocates more liberal positions compared to the traditional stance of the movement.
On the electoral front, polling institutions continue to offer contrasting scenarios. Some surveys attribute to Le Pen concrete chances of victory in a potential runoff against representatives of the radical left or the moderate center. Others, however, indicate that former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe is the most competitive candidate to stop the rise of the nationalist right.
Whatever the verdict of the Court of Appeal, the decision will mark a crucial milestone in French politics. For Marine Le Pen, it is likely the last chance to conquer the Élysée after more than a decade of attempts. For France, on the other hand, the ruling could redefine the balance of the presidential race and open a new phase in the competition between the right, center, and left.
